Projeção da temporada com base na história

2 de setembro de 2016
Tags: 49ers, bears, bengals, bills, broncos, browns, buccaneers, cardinals, chargers, chiefs, colts, cowboys, dolphins, eagles, eduardo araujo, falcons, giants, história, jaguars, jets, lions, packers, panthers, patriots, projeção dos playoffs, raiders, rams, ravens, redskins, saints, seahawks, steelers, temporada 2016, texans, titans, vikings,

wgzs2khwjgzwrbepp3ak

Faaaala moçada. Depois de um bom tempo sem escrever para o site, estou de volta e trazendo uma matéria no mínimo curiosa.
Todos os anos, muitos sites fazem uma simulação total da temporada para “chutar” quem irá aos playoffs, alguns tem bastante acertos, outros acabam errando feio, principalmente pelas surpresas que a NFL nos proporciona.

Quem imaginava, por exemplo, o Carolina Panthers tendo uma campanha quase perfeita no ultimo ano? Nós mesmo no site, na Revista Guia da NFL em 2015, projetamos o Panthers fora dos playoffs com uma chance mínima de disputar o Super Bowl. Erramos e erramos por muito.

Esse ano não foi diferente, na Revista Guia da NFL 2016 projetamos as chances de cada equipe em chegar e vencer o Super Bowl, e além disso fizemos um “bracket” – Projeção dos Playoffs até o Super Bowl. Espero dessa vez que cheguemos perto do acerto.

Nessa matéria, fiz uma simulação de toda a temporada para determinar quem vencerá sua divisão e quem chegará aos playoffs, só que diferente da maneira acima citada, eu busquei a história. Aqui não tem “achismo” nem opinião, cada equipe tem seus 16 jogos na temporada, então usei os confrontos diretos para determinar o vencedor de cada jogo. Por exemplo, o Pittsburgh Steelers, na história, tem 58 vitórias e 35 derrotas para o Cincinnati Bengals, contando assim 1 ponto favorável em seu recorde, por outro lado ele tem  32 vitórias e 42 derrotas para o Washington Redskins contando 1 ponto negativo.  No final de tudo, teremos a campanha final do time.

Em algumas situações, as equipes ficaram empatadas em número de vitórias e derrotas, casos como Miami Dolphins e San Francisco 49ers, com 6 vitórias para cada lado. Nesse caso, o desempate foi o local do jogo. O Dolphins recebe o 49ers em Miami, onde a equipe da casa leva vantagem, ganhando assim a vitória no confronto direto. Sempre que isso aconteceu, a equipe vitoriosa estará em verde “49ers* 6V/6D”.

Em apenas um jogo teve um empate geral, em número de vitórias e em jogos em casa e fora de casa, que foi no confronto entre Washington Redskins e Minnesota Vikings, onde as equipes têm 12 vitórias cada e empatam com 6 vitórias para cada jogando em seus domínios, dessa maneira eles ficaram com o empate.

Equipes Classificadas aos Playoffs 

Pela AFC, o Indianapolis Colts (13-3) com a melhor campanha e o Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) assegurariam a folga na primeira semana dos playoffs. O Chiefs ficaria em segundo no desempate em confronto direto contra o Steelers, que acontecerá nessa temporada. Os demais campeões de divisão são o Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) e 0 Miami Dolphins (12-4). As outras duas equipes classificadas pelo Wild Card seriam o Baltimore Ravens (11-5) e o Oakland Raiders (9-7), isso no desempate, deixando os dois últimos campeões do Super Bowl, Denver Broncos (9-7) e New England Patriots (9-7), no meio do caminho.

Pela NFC, a melhor campanha ficaria com o Green Bay Packers (12-4), seguido pelo San Francisco 49ers (12-4) com a segunda melhor e garantindo a folga nos playoffs. Os outros campeões de divisão foram o Dallas Cowboys (12-4) e o Carolina Panthers (11-5). As duas equipes classificadas via Wild Card, seriam o Seattle Seahawks (11-5) e o Minnesota Vikings (11-4-1).

Tá curioso para saber em qual posição seu time terminaria? Abaixo estão todos os jogos de todos os times com o resultado no confronto direto. Lembrando sempre que é uma simulação com base dos confrontos diretos e não uma opinião particular, não sou louco o suficiente para afirmar que o Bengals terminará em ultimo na sua divisão e o San Francisco 49ers será o campeão da sua.

Espero que gostem pelo aspecto da curiosidade e até a próxima.

AFC

AFC LESTE

MIA Miami Dolphins (Recorde 12-4)
Seahawks 10V/4D, Patriots 53V/48D, Browns 10V/8D, Bengals 16V/5D, Titans 19V/15D, Steelers 12V/13D, Bills 58V/45D, Jets 47V/53D,
Chargers 16V/15D, Rams 10V/2D, 49ers* 6V/6D, Ravens 6V/7D, Cardinals 8V/3D, Jets 47V/53D, Bills 58V/45D, Patriots 53V/48D
NE - Copia New England Patriots (Recorde 9-7)
Cardinals 6V/7D, Dolphins 48V/53D, Texans 6V/1D, Bills 69V/42D, Browns 10V/13D, Bengals 15V/9D, Steelers 13V/15D, Bills 69V/42D,
Seahawks 9V/8D, 49ers 8V/4D, Jets 59V/54D, Rams 7V/5D, Ravens 9V/3D, Broncos 30V/21D, Jets 59V/54D, Dolphins 48V/53D
BUF Buffalo Bills (Recorde 5-11)
Ravens* 3V/3DJets 60V/51D, Cardinals 6V/4D, Patriots 42V/69D, Rams 6V/5D, 49ers 5V/6D, Dolphins 45V/58D, Patriots 42V/69D,
Seahawks 5V/7D, Bengals 15V/14D, Jaguars* 7V/7DRaiders 19V/20D, Steelers 9V/15D, Browns 8V/12D, Dolphins 45V/58D, Jets 60V/51D
NYJ New York Jets (Recorde 4-12)
Bengals 17V/8D, Bills 51V/60D, Chiefs* 18V/18DSeahawks 8V/10D, Steelers 5V/19D, Cardinals 6V/2D, Ravens 1V/8D, Browns 10V/13D,
Dolphins 53V/47D, Rams 4V/9D, Patriots 54V/59D, Colts 31V/41D, 49ers 2V/10D, Dolphins 53V/47D, Patriots 54V/59D, Bills 51V/ 60D
AFC NORTEPIT Pittsburg Steelers (Recorde 12-4)
Redskins 32V/42D, Bengals 58V/35D, Eagles 28V/47D, Chiefs 20V/11D, Jets 19V/5D, Dolphins 13V/12D, Patriots 15V/13D, Ravens 24V/20D,
Cowboys 15V/16D, Browns 70V/58D, Colts 22V/6D, Giants 29V/44D, Bills 15V/9D, Bengals 58V/35D, Ravens 24V/20D, Browns 70V/58D

BAL Baltimore Ravens (Record 11-5)
Bills* 3V/3D, Browns 25V/9D, Jaguars 11V/8D, Raiders 7V/2D, Redskins 3V/2D, Giants 4V/1D, Jets 8V/1D, Steelers 20V/24D
Browns 25V/9D, Cowboys 4V/0D, Bengals* 20V/20D, Dolphins 7V/6D, Patriots 3V/9D, Eagles 1V/2D, Steelers 20V/24D, Bengals* 20V/20VCLE Cleveland Browns (Record 8-8)
Eagles 31V/16V, Ravens 9V/25D, Dolphins 8V/10D, Redskins 33V/11D, Patriots 13V/10D, Titans 35V/29D, Bengals 39V/46D, Jets 13V/10D
Cowboys 17V/13D, Ravens 9V/25D, Steelers 58V/78D, Giants 27V/21D, Bengals 38V/46D, Bills 12V/8D, Chargers 8V/15D, Steelers 58V/78D

CIN Cincinnatti Bengals (Recorde 6-10)
Jets 8V/17D, Steelers 35V/58D, Broncos 9V/20D, Dolphins 5V/16D, Cowboys 4V/7D, Patriots 9V/15D, Browns 46V/39D, Redskins 5V/4D
Giants 6V/3D, Bills 14V/15D, Ravens* 20V/20D, Eagles 8V/3D, Browns 46V/39D, Steelers 35V/58D, Texans 4V/6D, Ravens* 20V/20D
AFC OESTEKC Kansas City Chiefs (Record 12-4)
Chargers 56V/55D, Texans 5V/3D, Jets* 18V/18D, Steelers 11V/20D, Raiders 60V/52D, Saints* 5V/5D, Colts 8V/16D, Jaguars 4V/6D
Panthers 3V/2D, Buccaneers 5V/6D, Broncos 57V/55D, Falcons 5V/3D, Raiders 60V/52D, Titans 29V/21D, Broncos 57V/55D, Chargers 56V/55D

OAK Oakland Raiders (Record 9-7)
Saints 5V/6D, Falcons 7V/6D, Titans 28V/20D, Ravens 2V/7D, Chargers 61V/50D, Chiefs 52V/60D, Jaguars 3V/4D, Buccaneers 6V/3D
Broncos 61V/50D, Texans 3V/6D, Panthers 2V/3D, Bills 20V/19D, Chiefs 52V/60D, Chargers 61V/50D, Colts 8V/7D, Broncos 61V/50D

DEN Denver Broncos (Record 9-7)
Panthers 4V/1D, Colts 12V/13D, Bengals 20V/9D, Buccaneers 6V/2D, Falcons 9V/5D, Chargers 63V/49D, Texans 3V/2D, Chargers 63V/49D
Raiders 50V/61D, Saints 8V/2D, Chiefs 55V/57D, Jaguars 5V/6D, Titans 17V/22D, Patriots 30V/21D, Chiefs 44V/57D, Raiders 50V/61D

SD San Diego Chargers (Record 8-8)
Chiefs 55V/56D, Jaguars 6V/2D, Colts 18V/10D, Saints 7V/4D, Raiders 50V/61D, Broncos 49V/63D, Falcons 8V/1D, Broncos 49V/63D
Titans 26V/17D, Dolphins 15V/16D, Texans 4V/1D, Buccanneers 8V/2D, Panthers 1V/4D, Raiders 50V/61D, Browns 15V/8D, Chiefs 55V/56D
AFC SUL

IND Indianapolis Colts (Record 13-3)
Lions 21V/19D, Broncos 13V/12D, Chargers 10V/18D, Jaguars 21V/9D, Bears 23V/19D, Texans 23V/5D, Titans 29V/14D, Chiefs 16V/8D
Packers 22V/21D, Titans 29V/14D, Steelers 6V/22D, Jets 41V/31D, Texans 23V/5D, Vikings 16V/7D, Raiders 7V/8D, Jaguars 21V/9D

TEN Tennessee Titans (Record 7-9)
Vikings 4V/8D, Lions 8V/3D, Raiders 20V/28D, Texans 15V/13D, Dolphins 16V/19D, Browns 29V/35D, Colts 14V/29D, Jaguars 24V/19D
Chargers 17V/26D, Packers 6V/5D, Colts 14V/29D, Bears 5V/6D, Broncos 22V/17D, Chiefs 21V/29D, Jaguars 24V/19D, Texans 15V/13D

HOU Houston Texans (Recorde 7-9)
Bears 3V/0D, Chiefs 3V/5D, Patriots 1V/6D, Titans 13V/15D, Vikings 0V/3D, Colts 5V/23D, Broncos 2V/3D, Lions 2V/1D, 
Jaguars 17V/11D, Raiders 6V/3D, Chargers 1V/4D, Packers 1V/2D, Colts 5V/23D, Jaguars 11V/17D, Bengals 6V/4D, Titans 13V/15D

JAC Jacksonville Jaguars (Recorde 6-10)
Packers 2V/3D, Chargers 2V/6D, Ravens 11V/8D, Colts 9V/21D, Bears 2V/4D, Raiders 4V/3D, Titans 19V/24D, Chiefs 6V/4D
Texans 11V/17D, Lions 3V/2D, Bills* 7V/7D, Broncos 6V/5D, Vikings 1V/4D, Texans 11V/17D, Titans 19V/24D, Jaguars 9V/21D

NFC

NFC LESTE

1ºDAL Dallas Cowboys (Recorde 12-4)
Giants 62V/44D, Redskins 66V/44D, Bears 14V/11D, 49ers 16V/17D, Bengals 14V/11D, Packers 16V/17D, Eagles 64V/50D, Browns 13V/17D, 
Steelers 16V/15D, Ravens 0V/4D, Redskins 66V/44D, Vikings 15V/14D, Giants 62V/44D, Buccaneers 13V/4D, Lions 14V/12D, Eagles 64V/50D

WAS Washington Redskins (Recorde 7-8-1)
Steelers 42V/32D , Cowboys 44V/66D, Giants 66V/98D , Browns 11V/33D, Ravens 2V/3D, Eagles 84V/73D, Lions 30V/13D, Bengals 4V/5D
Vikings* 12V/12D, Packers 14V/20D, Cowboys 44V/66D, Cardinals 74V/45D, Eagles 84V/73D, Panthers 7V/5D, Bears 25V/23D, Giants 66V/98D

NYG New York Giants (Recorde 6-10)
Cowboys 44V/62D, Saints 15V/13D, Redskins 98V/66D, Vikings 12V/15D, Packers 26V/31D, Ravens 1V/4D, Rams 16V/26D, Eagles 84V/80D
Beangls 3V/6D, Bears 22V/33D, Browns 21V/27D, Steelers 44V/29D, Cowboys 44V/62D, Lions 20V/22D, Eagles 84V/80D, Redskins 98V/66D

PHI Philadelphia Eagles (Recorde 5-11)
Browns 16V/31D, Bears 12V/29D, Steelers 47V/28D , Lions 16V/14D, Redskins 73V/84D, Vikings 12V/13D, Cowboys 50V/64D, Giants 80V/84D
Falcons 17V/14D, Seahawks* 7V/7D, Packers 16V/26D, Bengals 3V/8D, Redskins 73V/84D, Ravens 2V/1D, Giants 80V/84D, Cowboys 50V/64D
NFC NORTEGB Green Bay Packers (Recorde 12-4)
Jaguars 3V/2D, Vikings 59V/50D, Lions 98V/68D, Giants 31V/26D, Cowboys 17V/16D, Bears 94V/92D, Falcons 17V/13D, Colts 21V/22D
Titans 5V/6D, Washington 14V/20D, Eagles 26V/16D, Texans 2V/1D, Seahawks 11V/8D, Bears 92V/94D, Vikings 59V/50D, Lions 98V/68D

MIN Minnesota Vikings (Recorde 11-4-1)
Titans 8V/4D, Packers 50V/59D, Panthers 7V/5D, Giants 15V/12D, Texans 3V/0D, Eagles 13V/12D, Bears 57V/51D, Lions 71V/36D
Redksins* 12V/12D, Cardinals 15V/11D, Lions 71V/36D, Cowboys 14V/15D, Jaguars 4V/1D, Colts 7V/16D, Packers 50V/59D, Bears 57V/51D

CHI Chicago Bears (Recorde 9-7)
Texans 0V/3D, Eagles 29V/12D, Cowboys 11V/14D, Lions 96V/71D, Colts 19V/23D, Jaguars 4V/2D, Packers 94V/92, Vikings 51V/57D
Buccaneers 38V/18D, Giants 33V/22D, Titans 6V/5D, 49ers 30V/33D, Lions 96V/71D, Packers 94V/92D, Redskins 23V/25D, Vikings 51V/57D

DET Detroit Lions (Recorde 1-15)
Colts 19V/21D, Titans 3V/8D, Packers 68V/98D, Bears 71V/96D, Eagles 14V/16D, Rams 40V/43D, Redskins 13V/30D, Texans 1V/2D
Vikings 36V/71D, Jaguars 2V/3D, Vikings 36V/71D, Saints 11V/12D, Bears 71V/96D, Giants 22V/20D, Cowboys 12V/14D, Packers 68V/98D
NFC OESTESF San Francisco 49ers (Recorde 12-4)
Rams 66V/64D, Panthers 8V/11D, Seahawks 15V/20D, Cowboys 17V/16D, Cardinals 29V/20D, Bills 6V/5D, Buccaneers 17V/5D, Saints 48V/25D
Cardinals 29V/20D, Patriots 8V/4D, Dolphins*M 6V/6D, Bears 33V/30D, Jets 10V/2D, Falcons 47V/30D, Rams 66V/64D, Seahawks 15V/20D

SEA Seattle Seahawks (Recorde 11-5)
Dolphins 4V/10D, Ramns 21V/15D, 49ers 20V/15D, Jets 10V/8D, Falcons 9V/6D, Cardinals* 17V/17D, Saints 8V/6D, Bills 7V/5D
Patriots 8V/9D, Eagles*E 7V/7D, Buccaneers 8V/4D, Panthers 7V/4D, Packers 8V/11D, Rams 21V/15D, Cardinals* 17V/17D, 49ers 20V/15D

ARZ Arizona Cardinals (Recorde 8-8)
Patriots 7V/6D, Buccaneers 9V/9D, Bills 4V/6D, Rams 37V/36D, 49ers 20V/29D, Jets 2V/6D, Seahawks* 17V/17D, Panthers 5V/10D
49ers 20V/29D, Vikings 11V/15D, Falcons 16V/13D, Redskins 45V/64D, Dolphins 8V/3D, Saints 15V/14D, Seahawks* 17V/17D, Rams 37V/36D

STL Los Angeles Rams (Recorde 6-9)
49ers 64V/66D, Seahawks 15V/21D, Buccaneers 15V/8D, Cardinals 36V/37D, Bills 5V/6D, Lions 43V/40D, Giants 26V/16D, Panthers 8V/12D
Jets 9V/4D, Dolphins 2V/10D, Saints 40V/32D, Patriots 5V/7D, Falcons 47V/28D, Seahawks 15V/21D, 49ers 64V/66D, Cardinals 36/37D
NFC SULCAR Carolina Panthers (Recorde 10-6)
Broncos 1V/4D, 49ers 11V/8D, Vikings 5V/7D, Falcons 17V/25D, Buccaneers 20V/11D, Saints 23V/19D, Cardinals 10V/5D, Rams 12V/9D
Chiefs 2V/3D, Saints 23V/19D, Raiders 3V/2D, Seahawks 4V/7D, Chargers 4V/1D, Redskins 7V/5D, Falcons 17V/25D, Buccaneers 20V/11D
ATL Atlanta Falcons (Recorde 7-9)
Buccaneers 22V/23D, Raiders 7V/6D, Saints 49V/45D, Panthers 25V/17D, Broncos 5V/9D, Seahawks 9V/6D, Chargers 8V/1D, Packers 13V/17D
Buccanneers 22V/23D, Eagles 14V/17D, Cardinals 13V/16D, Chiefs 3V/5D, Rams 28V/47D, 49ers 30V/47D, Panthers 25V/17D, Saints 49V/45D
NO New Orleans Saints (Recorde 5-10)
Raiders 6V/5D, Giants 13V/15D, Falcons 45V/49D, Chargers 4V/7D, Panthers 19V/23D, Chiefs 5V/5D, Seahawks 6V/8D, 49ers 25V/48D
Broncos 2V/8D, Panthers 19V/23D, Rams 32V/40D, Lions 12V/11D, Buccaneers 30V/18D, Cardinals 14V/15D, Buccaneers 30V/18D, Falcons 49V/45D
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Recorde 3-13)
Falcons 23V/22D, Cardinals* 9V/9D, Rams 8V/15D, Broncos 2V/6D, Panthers 11V/20D, 49ers 5V/17D, Raiders 3V/6D, Falcons 23V/22D
Bears 18V/38D, Chiefs 6V/5D, Seahawks 4V/8D, Chargers 2V/8D, Saints 18V/30D, Cowboys 4V/13D, Saints 18V/30D, Panthers 11V/20D

Postagens Relacionadas









Eduardo Araujo é apaixonado por esportes americanos desde 2000. Um dos fundadores e Manager Geral do Site, responsável pelo Power Ranking, Ranking L32 e Seleção da Rodada. No twitter: @EduNFL